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COVID-19 Fatality Rate Similar to Seasonal Flu, Multiple Studies Find
Maine’s COVID-19 Fatality Rate Around 0.07%
By: David Deschesne
Fort Fairfield Journal, May 6, 2020
Two studies in southern California have revealed the Case Fatality Rate of the infamous COVID-19 coronavirus is much lower than the mainstream media has been screaming about over the past month. Rather than a devastating 4% death rate, these studies indicate a fatality rate of 0.12 - 0.2%, more in line with a typical seasonal flu outbreak. While neither study has been peer-reviewed, yet, they were overseen by doctors at the prestigious Stanford University School of Medicine and USCLA.
Both studies used a new anti-body test to determine who actually had the virus already, or who has it currently; this opposed to the conventional PCR test which is only used for those showing symptoms and is not a reliable testing method.
The first anti-body study was conducted by researchers at Stanford University. They sampled 3,300 people in Santa Clara County, adjusting the sample for zip code, sex, and race/ethnicity.
What they found was that as of April 1, between 48,000 and 81,000 people in that county had been infected with COVID-19. Meanwhile, the “official” confirmed positive cases based on PCR tests was 956.
“The under-ascertainment for COVID-19 is likely a function of reliance on PCR for case identification which misses convalescent cases, early spread in the absence of systematic testing, and asymptomatic or lightly symptomatic infections that go undetected,” the report said.
Researchers for the Stanford study estimate the Case Fatality Rate for COVID-19 in Santa Clara County to be around 0.12-0.2%. “If antibodies take longer than 3 days to appear, if the average duration from case identification to death is less than 3 weeks, or the epidemic wave has peaked and growth in deaths is less than 6% daily, then the infection fatality rate would be lower.”
The second study was conducted by the University of Southern California, LA and LA County Dept. of Public Health. They were also assisted by doctors from Stanford University.
The USC study sampled 863 adults and found 2.8% - 5.6% tested already had antibodies to the COVID-19 virus. This translates to an estimated infection rate for LA County of approximately 221,000 to 442,000 which is 28 to 55 times higher than the 7,994 confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported for that county at the time of the study in early April.
The USC study had Case Fatality Rates similar to the Stanford study in Santa Clara County, at between 0.13 - 0.27%. “We haven’t known the true extent of COVID-19 infections in our community because we have only tested people with symptoms, and the availability of tests has been limited, said lead investigator, Jeeraj Sood, professor of public policy at the USC Price School for Public Policy and senior fellow at the USC Schaeffer Center for Health Policy and Economics. “The estimates also suggest that we might have to recalibrate disease prediction models and rethink public health strategies.”
Doctors Dan Erickson and Artin Massihi, owners of Accelerated Urgent Care (AUC) in Bakersfield California also conducted their own studies to find COVID-19 patients in their service area of Kern County also fell within the seasonal flu fatality rate. They discussed their findings at a recent press conference at their facility.
“If you look at California, we have 33,865 Covid cases out of a total of 280,900 tested,” said Dr. Erickson. “That's 12% of Californians are positive for Covid. The initial models were woefully inaccurate. They predicted millions of cases of death - not of prevalence or incidence, but death. That is not materializing. What is materializing in the State of California is 12% positives. We have 39.5 million people. If we just take a basic calculation and extrapolate that out, that equates to about 4.7 million cases throughout the State of California, which means this thing is widespread. That's the good news. We've seen 1,227 deaths in the State of California with a possible incidence or prevalence of 4.7 million. That means you have a 0.03% chance of dying from Covid-19 in the State of California.”
Dr. Erickson then asked the rhetorical questions; “Does that necessitate sheltering in place? Does that necessitate shutting down medical systems? Does that necessitate people being out of work?”
He also pointed out how 96% of people in California who get Covid recover with almost no significant continuing medical problems. “Those are important statistics for the State of California.
“We're sharing our own data. This isn't data filtered through someone. This is our own data. We found 6.5% [in Kern County] and the State of California found 12% [statewide]. So, the more you test, the more positives you get, the prevalence number goes up and the death rate stays the same so it [the fatality rate] gets smaller and smaller and smaller.”
Dr. Erickson also looked at the State of New York where things are much more critical. Out of 649,325 tests 39% tested positive for Covid-19. Extrapolated out over the entire population of New York that means there are an approximate 7.5 million Covid cases statewide. With 19,410 Covid deaths from 7.5 million cases, the case fatality rate in New York State is around 0.25%, or nearly double seasonal flu. All states have different numbers, though. For example, Maine, with a population of 1.3 million and a projected Covid case number of 68,947 as of April 29, coupled with the 52 deaths recorded as of that date, creates a case fatality rate of 0.07% for Covid-19 in Maine, or half the seasonal flu value (see math chart at the end of this article). When Dr. Erickson ran the numbers for the entire United States, the case fatality rate for Covid-19 was around 0.06%. Again, half of the death rate of a conventional seasonal flu virus that we experience every year. New York’s fatality rate may be higher due to its environment and the overall health of the people who live there.
Dr. Erickson’s hour-long press conference was posted on YouTube at the end of April, but was subsequently deleted by YouTube because they claimed it “Violated Community Standards” In other words, it conflicted with the establishment mainstream media narrative and had to be silenced. A day later, it was reposted but how long it will be allowed remains to be seen.
Prior to the California studies, Professor Hendrick Streek, at the University of Bonn, in Germany, conducted a wide sampling of the public there and estimated a mortality rate from COVID-19 to be around 0.37%. In an interview on CNBC, he suggested the U.S. may be in line with his numbers, as well. So far, he seems to be right.
The models governments relied upon in the U.S. in making decisions to shut down their economies and bankrupt hundreds of thousands of businesses were derived from Imperial College in London, and the IMHE. Not only were both models horribly wrong in their predictions of fatality rates for COVID-19, the Imperial College model - which predicted 2.2 million dead in the U.S. by this time - wasn’t peer reviewed and was circulated essentially as an inter-departmental memo pontificating possible outcomes given a predetermined set of hypothetical settings. Neither model has been proven to be correct, yet, but governments still rely on them to make decisions to the detriment of businesses in their respective economic systems.
